Baseball stadium at night under floodlights
MLB · live now NFL · Week 1

Every number, graded in the open.

Certy prices every game with its own model, writes out the reasoning in plain English, and posts its call before first pitch — win or lose, nothing gets deleted. Five picks free every day, forever.

Or just look at tonight’s card — it’s free, no signup
The Five — free every day, forever· Founding: free through Sept 10· Baseball running today·21+
Running right now

The model is already working. Here's tonight.

Real output from tonight's MLB slate — priced off both starting pitchers and the ballpark. Posted before first pitch, graded after.

Tonight's board · MLB · free logged pre-game
Every line above was written to the ledger before first pitch and cannot be edited. Walk-forward accuracy this season: 54.5% on moneyline over 1,493 scored games. MLB closing lines run about 57–58%, so this model is below the market, not beating it — which is exactly why we sell you the price and the receipt rather than a crystal ball.
Expected runs is shown as context, not as a signal: our totals model does not beat simply guessing the league average (MAE 3.615 vs 3.583), and we are not going to pretend otherwise.
How it works

Four steps, and none of them are a black box.

01

We price every game

Every night the model runs all 15 games and prices both sides from its own probabilities — no book’s margin baked in, because there is no book feed in it yet — then writes a scouting report on each one.

02

You see the reasoning

Ranked factors on every game, each one measured by how far it moves our own number. In plain English, with the arithmetic left in.

03

It tells you when there's nothing

Games with nothing in them get an explicit pass, not a manufactured play. Tonight the model passed on some of the slate and says so.

04

Place it, we keep the receipt

Build the slip here, place it at your book, and the call gets graded publicly after the game. Wins and misses both, never edited.

The app

Built like a trading terminal. Reads like a text from a friend.

No firehose of 200 bets. A short card, with the reasoning in plain English on every line — and an explicit pass on the games with nothing in them.

  • Our own number on both sidesA model probability converted straight to American odds, so the two sides mirror rather than carrying a book’s cut — next to the reasoning that produced it — not a vague “confidence” score. The live book-by-book comparison lands with the odds feed; today the app shows that column as pending rather than filling it in.
  • Parlays priced for correlationBuild the slip in-app and see both numbers — what a naive calculator says, and what the price is once the legs are correlated.
  • A record that can't be editedEvery call is timestamped before the game. The running ledger lives in the app — including the misses.
Open tonight’s card
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Go deeper

The research behind the number.

Every night the engine writes a scouting report on all 15 games — where a team is breakable, what moves the number, and how far. The games carrying one of The Five — and the ones the model passed on, because a pass is a finding — are open to everybody. The rest come with Certy Pro.

Tonight’s report  
 
Those are sensitivity weights — how far our own number moves when we vary that factor. They are not evidence the factor predicts the result. The starting-pitcher term, for instance, is worth +0.4 accuracy points at p = 0.76: indistinguishable from zero.
Tonight’s open games are free to read.  The rest of the slate, every prop board and the correlated parlays unlock with Certy Pro.
Free, always
$0

free forever

The Five — 5 picks every day, free forever. No account, no card, no email.

  • The Five — 5 picks every day, free forever
  • The full scouting report on every open game, passes included
  • The full public ledger, misses kept next to the hits
  • The performance page — our accuracy printed next to the closing line
  • Tap straight through to your sportsbook
Start free — open the app
Certy Pro
$69 / year

$0.19 a day

Nineteen cents a day. The whole slate, every prop board, and the parlay math.

  • The full slate — all 15 games, not just the five
  • Every scouting report, with the ranked factors behind it
  • The prop boards — home runs, strikeouts, hits, total bases
  • Same-game parlays priced for correlation, not by a naive calculator
  • Line-move alerts and your own CLV tracking, once the odds feed lands

Or $9.99 a month — $0.33 a day. Cancel any time.

What nineteen cents a day actually buys. If you bet $20 a day, Certy is 0.95% of one bet. And when a same-game slip's legs are correlated, the naive calculator lies about it: a slip it prices at +694 can be worth +573 once the correlation is in. On $20 that gap is $24more than four months of Certy, on one slip. That is money not lost, which is the only kind this product can honestly promise you.

Per-day figures divide the plan price by 365. Baseball ends in late October and football in February, so there are quiet stretches where the board is thin or dark — the annual exists to carry you across them, not to claim 365 days of picks.

Founding members: free through September 10, 2026, then $69/year locked for as long as you stay. We don’t have your card and nothing auto-charges — when the date comes you choose to pay, or you keep The Five for free. And we won’t charge anyone until the live odds feed is running; if it slips, the free period moves with it and we’ll tell you why.

Baseball on the infield at night
Why trust it

Most picks accounts delete their losses. We can't.

Every call is written to a ledger before the game starts and graded after. You can see the whole history — not a highlight reel of good weeks. We publish the calibration too, and we publish it honestly: our Brier score is 0.2498 against 0.2497 for simply predicting the base rate, which is a tie. We would rather you read that from us than find it out later.

Public ledger opens tonight · 0-0
Calls logged today
Backtest 54.5% · below the market
Baseball tonight. Football in a month.

Get in before the opener.

Early access is running on the MLB slate now. Founding members get the whole board free through September 10, then $69 a year locked for as long as they stay. The Five stays free either way.

Free through Sept 10·Nothing auto-charges·21+